Tim Brocklehurst » microsoft

The next chapter for the Internet is coming

tim — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 18:23:21 +0000

The Internet has evolved from a military information machine (1987), to an academic resource (1991), to the information superhighway (1995), to a commercial publishing platform (1998), to a flop (2000), to an interactive connection engine (2005).

So what’s next? What comes after the so-called Web 2.0 era?

Whatever it is, it seems likely that the biggest player in the game, Google, will have something to do with it. And my guess is that Chrome will too, Google’s latest innovation.

Chrome currently is a mere web browser. It does the same job as Internet Explorer (Microsoft) and Firefox (Mozilla), or for that matter, Safari on a Mac. The purpose of a browser is to bring the Internet to you, on whatever device you use, be it a computer, a PDA, an iphone… without a browser, a computer is a stand-alone device with no global interactivity and without the web.

So Google’s plan is to change all that. With Chrome OS, it aims to turn the model on its head. i.e. instead of running a browser on Windows, the browser *is* Windows. The browser itself is the operating system and all the programs we currently use on our local machines, like word processors, spreadsheets and email clients, are actually run far away on webservers.

If you have an account with Google’s mail service – Gmail – you might already be familiar with the Documents feature. With this, you can accomplish almost everything MS Word and MS Excel do without paying for them, all through your web browser. And if your web browser happens to be Google Chrome, then you might experience a slightly faster service using these tools than with other browsers.

With the backdrop of these services behind us, its not difficult to see where things might lead. New lightweight computers – netbooks – are already on the market. At the moment they are loaded with Microsoft Windows, like virtually every other PC which is sold. But in the future, it looks likely they, and other light-weight devices, will come pre-loaded with Chrome OS. When this happens, we will all be using remote applications and storage to generate and save our files.

And when that happens, a new level of interaction and search will become available. One which makes the current method of Internet search almost, but not entirely, obsolete.

Imagine, for example, what the implications would be if whenever you saved a document you could choose whether to make it public to your associates, to senior management, to your friends or to the whole world. And when you save it, that’s it. Its done. You don’t have to FTP it to a website, or publish it as a blog post or attach it to an email.

And when you have saved a document like that, it becomes immediately searchable, but only to the group you made it available to.

The broader implications of this are huge. Especially when you consider all the new devices which are bound to come through for viewing the Internet with. When local processing power isn’t necessary, we could begin using a device like the current ebook readers from Sony and Amazon to do all our work on. They, at least, have a big enough screen. Alternatively, we may find technology leans towards paper-like screens which are foldable yet still touch-sensitive and equipped with high-speed wireless access to the Internet.

There will always be corporate websites. But in this new Internet generation, they will need to be a lot more interactive than they are now. The traditional website-as-a-brochure method will simply not be enough for companies to compete, and for organisations to work, efficiently.

But there are still some crucial outcomes required for all this to become reality:

1. Can Google really get away with it, or will its monopoly be too much for the world to swallow?

2. Will security issues prevent it catching on?

3. Will people be ready enough for it?

4. Will bandwidth speeds be fast enough?

5. Will the broadband network cover enough of the population?

In my next post, I will aim to answer each of these. If you have any more, please post them in a comment below.

US Justice investigate Yahoo and Google.

tim — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 10:16:34 +0000

Competition is a good thing. We all know that. And now, as Microsoft goes on the hunt for corporate partners to help break up Yahoo!, Yahoo! gets scrutinized in a monopoly investigation for holding hands with Google.

As your comments to my previous posts testify, we all want to see competition breeding more creativity at the top of the Internet industry. But whichever way Yahoo turns right now, it looks like a backward step.

Are there really only 2 options? Does it have to be either Microsoft OR Google. Or is it possible that an investment angel can swoop in to keep Yahoo! independent and free it from the vultures.

Who could it be?

News Corp?… Time Warner?

Each of these would have good reason, if only to assist Myspace and AOL respectively.

Or perhaps Microsoft will succeed in embracing both these players in a joint take-over deal and dividing the spoils between them.

Wouldn’t it be ironic if the company with the highest competition legal bills in history, is subsequently responsible for fragmentizing its arch rival?

Google-hoo!

Google and Yahoo! are prevented from starting work on their combined search advertising deal for 100 days while the US Dept of Justice investigates it.

The deal would give them 80% of the web search market. Now that can’t be a good thing…!

So which would you rather? Google, Microsoft, or a Microsoft-led sell-off.

Or has anyone got Warren Buffet’s telephone number? – perhaps he could step in to give the industry a future inclusive of Yahoo! as we know it.

Which outcome do you prefer?

Icahn Won’t Add Value To Yahoo

tim — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 08:29:29 +0000

In a letter to shareholders, Yahoo!’s Roy Bostock (Chairman) and Jerry Yang (CEO) have explained that the Microsoft offer will benefit Microsoft more than it will Yahoo!, and that Carl Icahn’s proposed new board won’t add value to the company.

Like a wounded animal, Yahoo is hoping to find its escape by an alliance with Google instead of a take-over by Microsoft.

In this latest letter, the beseiged company is appealing for shareholders to keep the current board rather than vote for Carl Icahn’s proposed replacements. (See below).

With Google waiting (rather more patiently) in the wings, Yahoo loyalists led by Bostock and Yang, are hoping they can move forwards with Google’s 10 year plan bringing $800 Million per year instead of Microsoft’s $7.73 billion investment and $1bn-per-year deal.

It looks like it will come down to a battle between those who are emotionally involved in the culture and values of Yahoo! against those who are driven by optimizing the financial outcome.

Let me know how you think the Internet would change if there were no more Yahoo! – would you miss it?

Exodus at Yahoo!

tim — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 09:05:25 +0000

The recent exodus of senior Yahoo! staff has given rise to an interesting blogging exchange. With so many leaving at such a time, we are bound to wonder whether its because they’ve been poached by Microsoft, or Google, or perhaps a secret start-up which Microsoft OR Google can buy later… or whether its simply because Jerry Yang is under pressure to cut costs in order to satisfy the “lack of shareholder value” argument put forward by Carl Icahn.

Reading between the lines, I suspect Icahn has little to do with it, and it is more a case of the Internet protecting its precious own. Only a couple of days ago it was announced that Google were in high-end talks with Yahoo about matters beyond the current advertisement-sharing model. Unlikely to be a all-out takeover, analysts have predicted a rescue package which will start slowly and gather pace for mutual advantage.

Meanwhile, Yahoo’s shareprice has plummeted while Microsoft remain aloof and disinterested about their previous takeover bid.

Yahoo!’s recent departees have included Stewart Butterfield and Caterina Fake (co-founders of Flickr), Jeff Weiner, Usama Fayyad, Jeremy Zawodny and JR Conlin.

Each of them are giving no solid reasons for their departure, in fact Stewart Butterfield’s strange resignation letter only adds further intrigue to the riddle.

Watch this space… and listen out in a couple of weeks for an announcement of what they’re all up to.

The plot thickens. Do contribute with a comment if you know more…

Miller Backs Icahn’s Yahoo! Proxy Battle

tim — Thu, 15 May 2008 12:09:56 +0000

Further to my post yesterday about the Yahoo! saga, I see that Bill Miller, who as portfolio manager at Legg Mason controls more than 6% of Yahoo!’s shares, welcomed Carl Icahn among the senior shareholders yesterday.

“To the extent he can get the parties back to the table I’d be all in favour of that”, he said.

Miller’s endorsement indicates a significant portion of Yahoo! is leaning towards the Microsoft deal.

It is one thing for a board to have pressure from its shareholders, yet another to have that pressure intensified by a rush of new shareholders.

Yahoo!’s shareprice will start at $27.14 this morning. Interesting to see how it moves through the day…

This is how it stands currently, and a chart of the past 5 days (delayed 15 mins)…:

Yahoo! Finance
Quote for YHOO/

Although we’re told that Microsoft have given no indication that they will resume talks with Yahoo!, Icahn now has the power to replace the Yahoo! board with one which will be more open to the takeover bid.

Bill Miller’s endorsement means that few would stand in his way if he chose to do that, but he hasn’t got long.

The news over the next few days will be vital to the future of the whole Internet industry. Watch this space…